|Comparing Satellite-Derived Receding-Horizon and Day-Ahead Solar Forecasts: Cost Optimization of Residential PV and Battery Storage|
|Jamie M. Bright1, Chathurika Mediwaththe2, Paul Scott2, Nicholas A. Engerer1
1Fenner School of Environment and Society, College of Science, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
/2College of Engineering & Computer Science, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
We compare the performance of a receding-horizon (updated every 5-min throughout the day) and a day-ahead (once at start of day) solar power forecast with regards to cost optimization in application to a residential photovoltaic (PV) installation with battery storage.
Whilst benefits are offered from day-ahead forecasting, we demonstrate clear observable benefits for using a receding-horizon power forecast.
We find that receding-horizon forecasting improves upon the baseline scenario (no PV and storage) reducing the power-to-average ratio (PAR) to 46.5% (from 1.6669 to 0.7750), and offering a cost saving down to 3.9% (from 386.13 to 15.21 AU cts).
Area: Sub-Area 11.4: Solar Forecasting Applications for PV Grid Integration (Joint between Topic Areas 10 and 11)