On the Interdependence and Importance of Meteorological Variables for Photovoltaic Output Power Estimation
Tarek AlSkaif1, Soumyabrata Dev2, Lennard Visser1, Murhaf Hossari2, Wilfried van Sark1
1Utrecht University, Utrecht , Netherlands
/2Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland

While the large-scale deployment of Photovoltaic (PV) systems plays an important role to limit global warming, the variability of PV output power poses challenges in grid management. Typically, the PV output power is dependent on various meteorological parameters at the PV site. In this work, we perform a systematic analysis of different meteorological variables and show their importance for PV output power estimation. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we identify the primary meteorological variables for PV output power estimation. The numerical evaluation is performed using 3 years of 9 meteorological variables data and PV output power data on 10 distinct sites, located at the city of Utrecht, the Netherlands. Simulation results show the interdependency between the meteorological variables and identify the most important variables for PV output power estimation.

Area: Sub-Area 11.3: Forecasting Solar Resource and PV System Performance Minutes to Days-Ahead