Cost Modeling of High-efficiency, Multijunction Solar Modules for Residential Rooftop Installations for ARPA-E’s MOSAIC Technologies
Gregory N. Nielson1, Kelsey A. W. Horowitz2, Daniel W. Cunningham3, Zigurts K. Majumdar4
1Nielson Scientific LLC, Lehi, UT, United States
/2National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, United States
/3Advanced Research Project Agency - Energy, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, United States
/4Lighting Research Center, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, United States

We analyze the $/W and LCOE for high-efficiency, multijunction solar modules for the residential rooftop industry with particular focus on flat-plate, micro-concentrator module designs that don’t require external tracking structures. The analysis includes a detailed bottom-up installation cost model as well as a residential rooftop market assessment to determine the breakdown of area-constrained and usage-constrained homes and includes a forward-looking assessment considering the impact of electric vehicle and heat pump adoption. This market breakdown is required to understand the overall $/W and LCOE impact increased efficiency will have on the residential rooftop industry. Results indicate that successfully commercializing high-efficiency, multijunction solar modules will provide significant value to the residential rooftop solar industry.