Energy Transition Planning and the Role of Long-Term Modeling in Northern Canada

Sophie Janke, Madeleine McPherson, Curran Crawford University of Victoria, Victoria , BC, Canada

Long term energy transition planning presents a significant challenge to planners in Canada striving to meet national climate goals. This is exaggerated for northern territories, where barriers and considerations arise due to low capacity, harsh environmental conditions, and vast geographical separation from the southern Canadian energy infrastructure. This paper focuses on the Yukon Territory in Canada to emphasize this by reviewing current long-term modeling strategies, analyzing the potential of the newly developed MESSAGEix-Canada integrated assessment model (IAM), and recommending future work to increase the capacity, transparency, and confidence of energy transition modeling in this region. This was conducted through stakeholder engagement with individuals from the Yukon Government, local utility providers, industry experts, and modeling consultants. Key outcomes of this work include a policy overview, a record of key stakeholder concerns and considerations surrounding long term energy resource modeling, and the development of the first iteration of a Yukon MESSAGEix-Canada model. From here it was possible to analyze model performance alongside equivalent tools, unveil sensitivities, and define scenarios of interest for further exploration based on stakeholder feedback. Further, this paper compares important modeling features – most notably, the integration of soft linked models to consider climate impacts, land use implications, technology emissions, and hourly electricity generation for successful integration of renewables such as solar and wind. Finally, this paper recommends dedicated future work to increase collaboration and capacity for Yukon’s long term energy planning.