|Flexible/Lightweight Photovoltaics: A Comparative Technoeconomic Analysis and Roadmap|
|Donald Jenket II, Timothy Remo, Michael Woodhouse, Myles Steiner, Pauls Stradins, Stephen Glynn, Joseph Luther, Lance Wheeler, Lin Simpson, Matthew Reese, Nancy Haegel
NREL, Golden, CO, United States
A technoeconomic analysis was conducted to compare 16-year projections for five photovoltaic absorber materials in single-junction, standalone, flexible/lightweight platforms. Changes in efficiency, areal density, and cost were modeled based on input from subject matter experts in each field. The analysis suggested that module efficiencies will increase from 3% to 11% absolute with perovskites starting the lowest but improving the most and GaAs starting the highest but improving fractionally. Areal density was most affected by deposition constraints in the near-term and by absorber thickness and density in the far-term. The manufacturing costs for most absorber materials changed by up to $.35/W while remining below $1/W for the modeled time period. The exception to this cost trend was GaAs which decreased its manufacturing cost by 1-2 orders of magnitude through multiple processing advances but remained the highest cost absorber after 16 years.