Sustainable Energy-Industry Systems in the United States and Canada Demonstrating the Value of Solar-to-X |
Gabriel Lopez, Arman Aghahosseini, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Rasul Satymov, Ayobami S Oyewo, Christian Breyer LUT University, Lappenranta, --, Finland |
The transition to highly sustainable energy-industry systems is being driven by significant growth in solar photovoltaics (PV). Despite targets to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, fossil fuels still dominate the energy-industry systems in the United States and Canada. Transition pathways are developed and analyzed comparing a complete defossilization of both energy and non-energy demands to business-as-usual conditions based on government projections. The results clearly demonstrate the benefits of transitioning to 100% renewable energy for all sectors, as excess low-cost electricity from solar PV can be utilized for power-to-X solutions produce electricity-based fuels, chemicals, and materials. By 2050, the power sector only consumes 21% of all generated electricity, with the remaining used to electrify the heat, transport, and industry sectors. Defossilization of the industry sector including feedstocks in particular would require an additional 3170 TWh of electricity in 2050 on top of expected electricity demands. As a result, 87% of all primary energy in the system comes from renewable electricity, as total electricity generation increases from 4038 TWh in 2020 to 19,996 TWh in 2050. Solar PV reaches 76% of all electricity generation, leading to 9.4 TW of total installed capacity. The full energy-industry sector transition leads to reductions in both levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) and of final energy (LCOFE). The LCOE sees massive reductions from 75 €/MWh in 2020 to 23 €/MWh in 2050, and the LCOFE decreases from the current 54 €/MWh to 37 €/MWh in 2050. The strong operational synergies between solar PV and flexible electrolysis enables a transition pathway that is lower in cost compared to business-as-usual conditions, which reach an LCOFE of 43 €/MWh in 2050, demonstrating the viability of a Power-to-X Economy in achieving climate targets of net-zero emissions, and the high share of solar PV indicates a Solar-to-X Economy characteristic. |